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Library

The papers behind every number.

These are the papers behind our view of Gulf commerce. They show you who controls the customer, the delivery and the capital in Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Kuwait. Every claim carries a mark, so you know what you can lean on.

How a paper reads

Every claim carries a mark

A sample paper, counted by the mark on each of its claims.

Sample · A sample paper, one hundred claims
Moneyball Finance

You see what a paper knows and what it assumes.

Each claim is marked as verified, inference, scenario or unknown. You act on the verified ones first and check the rest.

58/ 100

Claims verified against a source

The rest say what they rest on.

Claims in the sample paper, by mark

  • 58Verified
  • 24Inference
  • 12Scenario
  • 6Unknown

Share of claims you can act on, by sample paper

PAR 80
  1. 58Paper A
  2. 66Paper B
  3. 71Paper C
  • 58Claims verified
  • 24Inference
  • 12Scenario
  • 6Unknown
The method

One method behind every paper

Each paper marks every claim as verified, inference, scenario or unknown, by the Moneyball Finance method. You read each figure for what it is.

Published papers

A shop manager unlocking the door at opening time as the morning delivery is wheeled in from a van, a Gulf skyline down the street

Loyalty

Should the best deals stay inside the app?

Keeping the best benefits inside the app can raise contribution per order and still lose customers. The result depends on where the lost orders go.

A rider collecting grocery bags from a supermarket pickup shelf at the evening rush while a staff member checks the order with a scanner

Platforms

What is DoorDash paying for in Instacart?

DoorDash is buying delivery scale and an advertising line. When agents choose for customers, the advertising line is the part that may lose its pricing power.

A picker scanning groceries into a tote in a dark store at the evening peak, order bags piled by the hatch where a rider waits

Grocery

What a dark store commits before the agent orders

An outside agent can make a dark store easier to buy from and easier to replace. The store needs buying terms, availability and fulfilment economics that give the agent a reason to choose it.

A chef tossing a pan over an open flame while another plates a dish at the pass during dinner service, the night skyline through the windows

Delivery

When AI orders dinner, who earns the margin?

One restaurant's statements show where the money in a dinner order goes. Visibility is the first line an agent puts at risk, and each position on the matrix holds a different piece.

A woman reading a thick contract with a highlighter as a man slides a stack of invoices across the table

Payments

The checkout bill for agent-led commerce

Card fees stay put when an agent pays. The new cost is a charge for access to the customer, and you need to know whether it buys new orders or taxes existing ones.

Related

Bring last month. Leave with a score.

Sit down with Qasim Abbas. One table, your numbers, and a clear read on where you stand against par.