Operational disruption risk assessment

We rank the events that threaten your operations: loss of a site, a supplier, a carrier, a system or a key person. For each one we put a figure on the days to recover and on what that does to revenue, margin and cash. The result is a ranking of exposures by financial effect, with the cost of reducing each one beside it.

• A disruption scenario register with the group's credible events and their likelihood bands.
• A financial exposure model: revenue, margin and cash at risk by scenario and by day of disruption.
• A dependency map linking each critical site, system, supplier and role to the revenue it carries.
• A ranked treatment plan that compares each mitigation's cost with the loss it avoids.
• A board paper stating the group's days-of-disruption tolerance and what would extend it.

• Your board reads revenue at risk per day for each top scenario.
• The paper states how many days of disruption the group funds from its own cash and facilities.
• Each top exposure carries a costed mitigation, and you see the share that do.
• You see the share of critical dependencies that have a named owner and a tested response.
• When a scenario occurs, the board gets the financial effect, and the time it took is on record.

Risk lists are long and flat. Every item has equal weight on the page, so the board cannot tell which exposure would cost the group a month's revenue and which would cost an afternoon. Money for resilience then goes to the loudest worry.

• Your risk register has no financial values against any item.
• Nobody can say how many days of disruption the group's cash could absorb.
• One site, one system or one person is known to be critical but has never been quantified.
• A recent disruption cost more than anyone expected.
• Lenders or insurers have asked how the group would cope and the answer was a description, not a number.

Chairmen, chief executives and audit or risk committee members who ask what the worst credible week would cost the group, and finance heads who must put a number to it.

Qasim Abbas has answered for treasury above USD 50M at group level, so he frames a disruption in the unit boards act on, which is money per day. Your risk assessment ranks each exposure the same way.

We build the model with your leaders, tied to your ledger figures. See how fees work.

How does insurance sit in the assessment?

The paper prices insurance as one of the treatments, and your brokers receive that part to take forward.

How many scenarios do you cover?

Between eight and twelve credible ones, chosen with your leaders. More scenarios add noise without changing the ranking.

Can the paper go to our lender?

Yes. It is written so that a lender can follow the logic.

Seat the chief executive and the finance head at one private briefing. We agree the scenarios worth pricing there and show what the board sees at the end.