Budgeting, forecasting and scenario modelling

We build the group's annual budget, a rolling 12-month forecast and a 13-week cash view from one driver-based model. The drivers are what the business moves: orders, basket value, delivery cost per drop, fleet size, stock cover, payment days.

A scenario book sits on top: a demand shock, a cost shock, a delayed customer, a lost contract. Each case carries its cash effect and the first action, and your board has rehearsed the response before it is needed.

• A driver-based budget by entity, brand and channel, with an owner for every driver.
• A rolling 12-month forecast refreshed monthly, with the variance explained.
• A 13-week cash view refreshed weekly, tied to the facility and covenant dates.
• A scenario book with the cash effect, the trigger point and the first response for each case.
• A budget calendar and a one-page assumptions sheet the board approves.

• The 12-month forecast is corrected driver by driver, and the variance to actual sits on the page.
• Every scenario in the book carries a named trigger and a first response, and the board counts how many do.
• Covenant headroom is visible ahead of each cash peak, so a facility drawing arrives with a reason.
• The annual budget closes in fewer working days, and managers' targets add up to the board's.

A budget built from last year's figures plus a percentage is out of date by the second quarter. Managers then argue about variance and no one reforecasts. The board sees a gap to budget, not the cash it will hold in three months. When something moves, such as a fuel price, a supplier term or a large customer's payment, there is no model to say what it means, and decisions wait for the next meeting.

• The budget is abandoned by the end of the first quarter.
• The forecast is a single figure with no drivers and no range.
• The facility is drawn without warning because the cash peak was not seen.
• Managers set their own targets and the group total does not match the board's.
• A recent shock, such as a lost contract or a rate change, took weeks to cost.

Chairmen and chief executives of groups whose budget is a spreadsheet agreed once a year, and boards that want to see further ahead than the next month-end.

Qasim Abbas has answered for treasury above USD 50M at group level, where a single fuel price or payment term moves the month. We shape your forecast and scenarios to show that move before it lands.

We build the model in a workbook and refresh it from your ledger, whether Xero, QuickBooks, Zoho Books, NetSuite or Oracle, and from order and dispatch data. See how fees work.

How many scenarios are enough?

Three or four that the board can remember, each with a trigger and a first response.

How accurate will the forecast be?

Each week the 13-week view is set beside actual cash and the gap is published, and each month the drivers that missed are corrected.

Bring the current budget. We return it as a rolling forecast and name the scenario your board rehearses first, in a private briefing with the Managing Partner.